from my post to the Blatt on July 5th:
Obama will win by 323 to 215 electorial votes. The Dems will hold all the states they had in 2004 and add AK CO IN IA MT NM NV OH VA and possibly NC.
In the Senate, the Dems will pick up 10 seats in AK CO ME MN MS NC NH NM OR VA, leaving themselves one vote short of being fillibuster proof.
In the House, the Dems will have a net pick-up of 18 seats. They will give the GOP a strong run for our congressional district (PA 05), but will probably lose...it will depend on turn out in State College.
Looking back, it seems that I was too conservative on the EV count. Obviously I am wrong about AK, but I still feel pretty confident about the rest. I'm moving NC to a win and adding MO and IN as strong possibles. Weak possibles are WV, GA, MT and ND.
O 346 to M 192 5.8% spread in popular vote
In the Senate, I am certainly wrong on ME, I stand on predicting wins in AK CO MN NC NH NM OR VA and add GA and MS as strong possibles, meaning there is a shot at being rid of Traitor Joe.
In the House races, I now think 18 is too few, but I am not sure how many more...say a total of 32 seats picked up...
Glenn Thompson (R-unqualified idiot) will win in our local Congressional race, but Mark McCracken will do a lot better than the average someone who has spent less than $1 for every $6 of his opponent does. I say an 8% spread
All the local State House and Senate incumbents will win handily.
The water system finance bond will pass easily.
The Dems will continue to hold all the State row house offices (Auditor General, Attorney General, Treasurer, etc)