I'm trained as a geographer, long concerned with questions of sustainablity and human interaction with the physical environment. I have been an independent scholar studying resource consumption since the early 70's. These are the parts of the Peak Oil argument that we (geologists, geographers, resource economists) are pretty sure are correct:
1. Hubbert was generally correct with his projections of the US peak oil.
2. The US economy suffered substantial dislocation after the peak, but was able to offload its supply needs to outside sources and restore its petroleum supply and eventually, its economy.
3. No new oil field of any substantial size has been discovered since the early 1990's.
4. China, India, Korea, Taiwan, and the rest of the Asian Young Lion economies are just entering their demand growth phase on oil usage.
5. Using Hubbert's methodology, it is almost certain that world peak oil will happen in the next few years, by 2010 at the latest. It's hard to be precise because:
a) some countries like Russia and Saudia Arabia play fast and loose with their figures on spare production capability and reserves
b) oil companies consider information about reserves to be proprietory and do not disclose them fully and some LIE about their reserves to prop up stock price (Shell as a recent example)
6. The last peak oil brought substantial economic dislocation at a time when we were able to replace the supply. That option will not exist this time.
7. The issue becomes one of whether there is any possibility of a soft landing from
the resulting crisis or whether a crash and burn is inevitable.
8. Given the quality of economic and political leadership the world is exhibiting at the present time, I fear for the worst.
9. I've chosen to be proactive about this. I live in a small town. I have no car. I am out of the credit/debt economy. I am in the process of buying a small energy efficient house with small woodlot and ground for a decent size garden.
I do all of this not because I am sure that the doom is upon us, but because I cannot with any certainty say it is not.
The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies
Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak
Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability
New Autonomous House: Design and Planning for Sustainability
Self-Sufficient Life and How to Live It
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